A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
